In late June 2025, a bizarre prophecy from Japanese manga artist Ryo Tatsuki—dubbed Japan’s “New Baba Vanga”—began circulating wildly online, predicting a catastrophic event in Japan on July 5, 2025. Tatsuki’s The Future I Saw, originally published in 1999 and updated in 2021, supposedly foresees a massive undersea earthquake/tsunami centered near Japan. Social media lit up with the news: hashtags like #July5Disaster and #BabaVangaPrediction shot to the top of trending lists across Asia. By early July, the combination of an unsettling prediction and rampant online chatter had real-world effects on travel. Major news outlets report that flights and hotel bookings to Japan have plummeted in the run-up to July 5, as anxious travelers in Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, India and beyond reconsider or cancel their plans.
A “New Baba Vanga” and Her Chilling Forecast
Ryo Tatsuki is a Japanese manga artist whose work has gained a cult following for eerily prescient illustrations. She first drew attention after her 1999 comic The Future I Saw appeared to predict several real disasters. Most famously, the book contains a vision of a “great disaster” in March 2011 – the same month the Tōhoku 9.0 earthquake, tsunami and Fukushima nuclear meltdown struck Japan. Tatsuki has also been credited (by fans) with predicting events like the 1995 Kobe quake and even pop-culture deaths. This track record – whether coincidental or not – earned her the nickname “Japan’s Baba Vanga” (after the famed Bulgarian prophetess).
In a 2021 edition of The Future I Saw, Tatsuki added a new warning: a terrible catastrophe is due in July 2025. According to press reports, her artwork describes Japan’s oceans “boiling” south of the islands on July 5 (at 4:18 AM) and predicts an undersea rupture between Japan and the Philippines that could spawn tsunami waves “three times higher” than the 2011 disaster. The graphic novel even sketches a “diamond-shaped” quake zone linking Japan, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Marianas – a seismic hotspotenglish.mathrubhumi.com. Whether one believes such a vision or not, the prophecy is now in the public eye: platforms like Twitter/X and Facebook are flooded with conspiracy videos, screenshots of manga panels, and snippets of Tatsuki’s quotes. As Moneycontrol reported, the precise timestamp “4:18 AM on July 5” has “taken the internet by storm”.
Social Media Frenzy and #July5Disaster
Once the prophecy resurfaced in 2025, it spread like wildfire on social media, especially among Asian netizens. Posts from Hong Kong, Taiwan and Southeast Asia warning of an imminent Japan quake drew millions of views on YouTube and Facebook. Influencers and worrywart YouTubers shared survival guides, epic music montages and lurid imagery, all tagged #July5Disaster or #July2025Predictionenglish.mathrubhumi.com. An AFP story from Hong Kong noted that a feng-shui blogger’s video telling people not to visit Japan racked up over 100,000 views. Even mainstream travel blogs and forums joined in: disaster-preparedness threads saw a spike in activity, with members furiously trading evacuation tips and “what if” scenariosenglish.mathrubhumi.com.
By early July, a simple hashtag search on Twitter or TikTok reveals hundreds of thousands of posts about “Japan disaster July 5.” An Indiatimes feature noted that social feeds were “buzzing” with speculation, as panicked travelers in Japan and the broader Asia-Pacific posted questions like “should I still go to Tokyo next week?”. Even U.S. media took note: a Washington Post piece reports that videos warning of a “massive earthquake” in Japan have gone viral across East Asia. In short, viral speculation – amplified by every retweet and share – turned a fringe prophecy into a trending topic.
Tourism Takes a Hit: Flight and Booking Declines
This online panic has translated into a very real downturn for Japan’s travel industry. Starting in late June, travel agencies and airlines began reporting sharp drops in bookings for summer trips to Japan. For example, Bloomberg Intelligence data cited by NDTV shows that early July flight bookings from Hong Kong to Japan were down 50% year-on-year, with some days plunging by as much as 83%. Similar figures have emerged across Asia: Indiatimes notes that flight and hotel bookings from Hong Kong fell around 50%, while bookings from China, Thailand and Vietnam dropped up to 83% compared to last year. These are staggering declines for what is normally a busy travel season.
Travel agents corroborate the data. Hong Kong’s CLS Holiday (a major tour operator) says it saw 70–80% fewer inquiries about Japan trips in March–April 2025 than in the same period last year. Likewise, Hong Kong–based WWPKG told CNN their bookings for Japan during the April “Golden Week” and Easter period were down 50%english.mathrubhumi.com. A Greater Bay Airlines manager admitted that they expected to sell 80% of seats on certain Japan routes but ended up filling only about 40%. In short, many travelers who would normally be finalizing their summer vacation plans instead cancelled or postponed.
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Booking Declines: Official and media reports agree that summer travel bookings to Japan have plunged. NDTV reports an 83% drop in average flight bookings between late June and early July compared to last year. Likewise, Reuters (via Japan Times) notes “holiday bookings from key Asian markets have plunged ahead of the busy summer season”. Hong Kong firms confirm these trends: in addition to 70–80% fewer inquiries, Hong Kong Airlines saw about half as many passenger bookings in May as usual.
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Flights and Routes Cut: Major airlines have actually canceled or reduced service. For instance, Hong Kong Airlines announced it would suspend all flights to the southern Japanese prefectures of Kagoshima and Kumamoto during July and Augustabcnews.go.com. Greater Bay Airlines similarly cut back flights to Japan’s Tokushima region this summer. These were destinations expected to be popular in summer; their sudden suspension underscores the depth of the slump.
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Airline Occupancy Falling: In some regions, plane load factors have collapsed. Flight occupancy to Japan’s western Tottori prefecture, for example, fell from about 85% in April to 43.3% in May. This means airlines were flying roughly half-empty just weeks before the predicted “disaster” date. Similarly, an April interview noted Greater Bay’s occupancy prediction (80%) versus reality (40%).
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Agencies and Hotels Under Strain: Travel agencies and hotels are scrambling to respond. Some companies are offering steep discounts or added perks to reassure nervous clients. Hong Kong’s WWPKG even introduced packages with full refunds if a magnitude-5.0 quake or stronger is officially declared in Japan. But as one industry CEO put it, “the paranoia among travelers about a potential July disaster [is] deep-rooted”. In practice, even these crisis-insurance deals have done little to revive bookings; many travelers simply do not want to take any risk.
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Wider Asian Impact: The drop isn’t limited to Hong Kong and China. Tourism officials in Taiwan, South Korea and Southeast Asia also report softening demand for Japan trips. Mathrubhumi (an Indian travel news site) notes that travelers from “regions such as Hong Kong, Taiwan and mainland China” have seen their bookings fall by 50–83%. In India itself, several travel media outlets (NDTV, Times of India) are highlighting growing cancellations, suggesting even Indian tourists are reconsidering Japan plans.
Collectively, these figures paint a clear picture: Asia’s tourism surge to Japan is showing an unexpected hiccup. (For context, Japan was on track for record arrivals in 2025, so these drops are unusual.) As a Washington Post analysis points out, the only significant regional decline was coming from Hong Kong – exactly where the “July 5” rumors were most widely shared.
Official Warnings and “Unscientific Rumors”
Unsurprisingly, Japanese authorities and scientists have been quick to push back. The core message from experts is simple: You cannot predict an earthquake by date. The Japan Meteorological Agency and Cabinet Office have repeatedly emphasized there is no scientific basis for Tatsuki’s forecast. A recent X (Twitter) post by the Cabinet Office bluntly stated: “with current scientific knowledge, it is difficult to predict an earthquake by specifying the date, time and location”abcnews.go.com. Top meteorologists echo that assessment – equating the manga’s claim with baseless misinformation.
High-level officials have publicly urged calm. Miyagi Prefecture Governor Yoshihiro Murai (who lost relatives in the 2011 tsunami) warned that “unscientific rumors” hurting tourism would be “a major problem”, but assured people “there is no reason to worry”. The Tokyo government likewise tweeted reassurances on social media, and the national government panel on disaster risk even called out that these viral prophecies are unfounded. In short, the Japanese establishment is telling everyone to treat this as fiction, not fact.
China’s government has also weighed in indirectly. In April 2025, the Chinese embassy in Tokyo issued a routine natural-disaster advisory telling Chinese citizens to stay alert near Japan. Media reports note that, although the advisory made no mention of Tatsuki, many travelers interpreted it as tacit confirmation of the rumorsenglish.mathrubhumi.com. (In fact, that embassy notice was prompted by recent minor earthquakes and volcano activity, not the prophecy per se.) Still, the timing only added fuel to the digital fire for Mandarin- and Cantonese-speakers in Asia.
Overall, the tone from officials is one of science-over-superstition. They repeatedly emphasize that Japan’s advanced monitoring systems mean any real risk is already known, and they urge the public to rely on credible informationabcnews.go.comenglish.mathrubhumi.com. Tourists are advised to keep their plans unless official advisories say otherwise. As one local tourism board put it, they are “surprised that such rumors have led to cancellations”.
Social Psychology and Media Influence
Why has an obscure manga prediction had such a huge ripple effect? Analysts point to a mix of factors: fear of earthquakes is naturally high in Asia (given Japan’s history), social media algorithms that amplify sensational content, and the “authority bias” of a reputed seer. In Japan’s case, Tatsuki’s past (partial) track record made her prophecy eerily compelling to many online readers.
Cultural observers note this is a classic case of viral misinformation influencing behavior. Even though experts dismiss the prediction, the psychological impact is real: people tend to assign weight to any source that seems credible or lucky. The Indiatimes commentary put it succinctly: the “growing panic, falling tourism numbers and viral social media buzz show just how powerful a prediction can be” – whether it’s true or not. Online, the line between satire, conspiracy and news is thin, and once a scary narrative takes hold, it snowballs.
Media coverage itself shapes perception. On one hand, major outlets have highlighted the drop in bookings and airline cancellations, which in turn validates the sense that “something is happening.” For example, NDTV cited Bloomberg data on the 83% booking slump, and the Japan Times reported outright that “rumors of an impending earthquake prophesied in a manga” caused Asian holiday bookings to plunge. On the other hand, credible journalists also emphasize the lack of evidence. The Washington Post article notes that, despite the scare, Japan’s tourism is still booming overall – a reminder not to overreact.
In Asia’s fast-moving media landscape, stories bleed across borders instantly. A Chinese or Korean traveler who sees a scary tweet might cancel a trip; an Indian travel agent reading Times of India may field cancellations from clients. Indian outlets themselves have joined the story: Times of India and NDTV ran features on the “New Baba Vanga” and the ensuing booking declines. Even Moneycontrol and Mathrubhumi (Indian news sites) published dramatic astrology-style pieces about the prophecy and reported on travel dropsenglish.mathrubhumi.com. This regional media buzz helps explain why the hashtag trended – it’s not just an online rumor, it’s become a news story, fed by both social posts and formal coverage.
Travel Caution and What’s Next
What should travelers and travel companies make of this? In the short term, many Japan-bound tourists from Asia are playing it safe – either postponing trips until later in July or considering alternate destinations. Travel insurers and tour operators have noticed a surge in last-minute cancellations. Some hotels and airlines are offering flexible rebooking options, eager to avoid losing customers. For example, Hong Kong travel firms introduced post-booking cancellation waivers for Japan; tour packages now often include full refunds even if a quake happens.
Looking ahead, experts say the ultimate test will come on July 5 itself. If that date passes uneventfully, the panic may quickly fade and many travelers will happily reschedule (as one Hong Kong hotelier noted, “in the likely event that the predictions do not come to pass, people will realize it's not true”english.mathrubhumi.com). The industry hopes that normal tourism will bounce back by mid-summer, especially since Japan is generally attracting record numbers of visitors. (Japan hosted about 36.8 million tourists in 2024, and May 2025 alone saw 3.7 million arrivals, up 21.5% from a year earlier.)
However, the scare may have longer-term effects on public trust. Some observers warn that once tourists see how quickly rumors can travel, they’ll be more cautious about booking holidays. Destinations that become internet “fear magnets” might have to work harder to reassure travellers in the future, emphasizing scientific risk assessments and safety measures. In this sense, the #July5Disaster episode is a cautionary tale in itself: it shows that in our hyper-connected media age, even an apocryphal prophecy can influence global behavior.
Conclusion: The Power of Prediction and Perception
The July 5, 2025 case highlights how viral predictions can have real-world impact. In just weeks, a decades-old manga comic has helped shape travel decisions across Asia – a phenomenon that travel analysts say is unprecedented. While officials and scientists continue to remind the public that “earthquakes cannot be precisely forecast”abcnews.go.com, the event underscores the sway of sensational content. Whether or not a catastrophe occurs on the predicted date, the havoc wrought on tourism in advance demonstrates the media’s power to amplify fear.
As one Indiatimes reporter observed, by early July “the growing panic, falling tourism numbers and viral social media buzz show just how powerful a prediction can be”. For travelers and policymakers alike, the lesson may be to check headlines—and hashtags—carefully. In the meantime, Japan’s tourism sector braces for an unusual summer, and all eyes are on July 5. In a region that values both ancient superstition and modern science, the outcome of this viral prophecy will no doubt become yet another topic of discussion online.
Sources: Asian and international news reports including Indiatimes, Washington Post, ABC News, Times of India, NDTV, AFP (via VnExpress), and others have documented the spread of the prophecy and its impact on tourismabcnews.go.com. These sources provide booking statistics, airline actions, official statements, and social-media observations cited above.